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Recently in our office, someone questioned the relationship between winning the toss
and winning the match. The question was prompted by an on-air discussion between two
TV commentators, who seemed to express the view that the winning of the toss went a
long way toward the winning of the match.
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As a result, we have performed some analysis of all test matches played prior to the
start of 2002. We found the results rather surprising, and summarise them in this
article.
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Our analysis looks at the 988 test matches completed prior the end of 2001 where a
result was obtained (i.e. the match was not drawn or tied). We broke down our
analysis by looking at home sides and away sides.
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Won
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Lost
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Side Winning Toss (Overall)
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525 (53.14%)
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463 (46.86%)
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Toss Won by Home Side
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328 (61.89%)
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202 (38.11%)
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Toss Won by Touring Side
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197 (43.01%)
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261 (56.99%)
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As can be seen, there appears to be a slight advantage to the side winning the toss (except
in the case of touring sides). But as we shall see shortly, other factors need to be
considered.
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We then decided to examine what happened when the captain winning the toss elected to
bat, and when he put the opposition in to bat.
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There have been 740 occasions where the captain winning the toss elected to bat and
a result was obtained.
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Won
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Lost
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Electing to Bat (Overall)
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392 (52.97%)
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348 (47.03%)
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Electing to Bat (Home Captain)
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237 (60.31%)
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156 (39.69%)
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Electing to Bat (Touring Captain)
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155 (44.67%)
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192 (55.33%)
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The captain winning the toss has put the opposition in to bat on 248 occasions where a
result was obtained.
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Won
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Lost
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Putting Opponent into Bat (Overall)
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133 (53.63%)
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115 (46.37%)
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Putting Opponent into Bat (Home Captain)
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91 (66.42%)
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46 (33.58%)
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Putting Opponent into Bat (Touring Captain)
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42 (37.84%)
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69 (63.16%)
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Finally, to put these figures in perspective, we need to look at the frequency at which
sides win, regardless of the toss. Our statistics (for matches where a result is
obtained) show that the home side wins 59.62% of matches. The touring side wins only
40.38% of matches.
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So, allowing that the home side wins 59.62% of matches, it would seem that for the home
side winning the toss gives only a marginal advantage (best where the opposition is sent
in to bat where winnings percent rises to 66.42%). For a touring side who win only 40.38%
of matches, there is also a slight advantage in winning the toss (except where they send
the home side in to bat, when the win percentage takes a dip to 37.84%).
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To summarise, apart from the odd occasion when a wicket is perhaps under prepared, or has
some unusual qualities, statistics suggest that the winning of the toss is not a major
factor in the result of a match.
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